trading the belief

As a trader, I must learn how to trade my belief. Having conviction in my belief can be so important. I often find myself regretting not executing my belief. I'm too hesitant to pull the trigger. Perhaps I'm not so flexible with expectations. Dealing with uncertainty is part of the game. I must learn to cope with it, through small position size and repetition, I will develop more confidence.

The pullback day after outside reversal day seemed like a golden opportunity to get short, or to buy puts. But I was not able to execute my "system". I was about to long some March IWM puts (I expect rise of volatility), but just couldn't do it. Admittedly, it's not the pattern I usually trade nor the types of trade that I do, but the opportunity called for prudent risk taking. 

IWM made a double top. Small caps showed weak relative strength.

compared to the SPY...

I was tempted to get short SPY intraday... but not able to execute (no, I don't believe using more tools will provide more confidence. It's not about tools). 

S&P has retraced 50% from the high of the last rally. A meaningful, tradable bounce is likely. But mostly I'm on the look for intraday shorts, especially if S&P break 15min down trendline. I'll play a bounce back to the trendline.

It's earnings season and I just want to shut myself from financial media. It's not about earnings. It's all about overall market environment. If Apple and Amazon had earnings today it would probably be sold off hard instead of gapping up.

ouch!

Intraday reversals are brutal. We got one today. I'm out of all positions, even tempted to get short... but managed to hold my fingers at the close.

It's not to say there had been no warning signs. Yesterday the market failed to hold the early morning gains. There seems to be a massive rising wedge in the making. Within the past few weeks, a few down days had great volume while market edged up on overall weak volume.

Today's afternoon selling makes a pretty convincing case that market is at the top. No news, just sellers. Not even a pullback in the midst of selling.

a few trades

There's definitely no lack of patterns to trade today.

A nice breakout in USO. This is a no-brainer breakout trade IMO. Energy exhibit great relative strength since the get-go. In addition, it draws huge participation. With the overall market hanging on at the highs of the day, it's a pretty good bet oil will take market a few notches higher. I missed out the earlier trades, but caught the pattern developing before 11 PST. A clean break of the triangle pattern. Exit was tough. I actually held on through the retracement, because I figure there would be a follow up. Nothing happened thereafter.

Nice break in AXP. One of the strongest patterns of the day. Bought into a fake break out around 10:15. It would have broken out if market had not been weak at that time. I held on due to such low volatility and volume. Added more shares as it broke out around 11 PST. Exit bar was obvious - the big red candle around 12:10. I actually got in again near the close for a quick scalp.

What a nice trend in SWN. Only if I've not exited too early.. It's okay. Opportunities abounds.

In hindsight, I got into X a bit early. Like AXP, I held on as it kept trending down. Eventually it came back with some force. But perhaps I shouldn't have traded it at all.

clean break of 10,000?

Great day for day trading. We have Dow breaking 10,000 first time in a while. Volume spiked as Dow surged past 10,000. The followup price action seems pretty convincing to me. We shall see tomorrow. My money is on the long side in the near term.

This is the kind of day I wish more margin is available to trade... My trade in SU got canceled due to margin. Man, only if I caught this one...

I did catch a nice breakout in GME. Thanks to multiple computer screens!!

So many stocks (especially financial, energy, and premium consumer names) are showing pretty convincing actions. Is this a great environment for breakout trades?

I went long on HRBN, BAC, SGP and VIT. We shall see. The position I'm most nervous about is BCSI. Divergence is forming. Take profit or keep running?

Choppy intraday actions

A difficult day for me as I got whipsawed on both ends (buy strength and sell weakness). One of those days, just hard to get a grip... Volume did nothing to confirm price action.

Going into today, I knew I would close some swing positions because momentum is beginning to fade. I also don't like how market leaders rose on relative weak volume. This could be a double top forming.