trading the belief

As a trader, I must learn how to trade my belief. Having conviction in my belief can be so important. I often find myself regretting not executing my belief. I'm too hesitant to pull the trigger. Perhaps I'm not so flexible with expectations. Dealing with uncertainty is part of the game. I must learn to cope with it, through small position size and repetition, I will develop more confidence.

The pullback day after outside reversal day seemed like a golden opportunity to get short, or to buy puts. But I was not able to execute my "system". I was about to long some March IWM puts (I expect rise of volatility), but just couldn't do it. Admittedly, it's not the pattern I usually trade nor the types of trade that I do, but the opportunity called for prudent risk taking. 

IWM made a double top. Small caps showed weak relative strength.

compared to the SPY...

I was tempted to get short SPY intraday... but not able to execute (no, I don't believe using more tools will provide more confidence. It's not about tools). 

S&P has retraced 50% from the high of the last rally. A meaningful, tradable bounce is likely. But mostly I'm on the look for intraday shorts, especially if S&P break 15min down trendline. I'll play a bounce back to the trendline.

It's earnings season and I just want to shut myself from financial media. It's not about earnings. It's all about overall market environment. If Apple and Amazon had earnings today it would probably be sold off hard instead of gapping up.