Sitting in a cafe in West Village as I speak, and watching a video on Mandelbrot's theory of Fractals and its applications. Check it out:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/fractals/program.html
Good to see the theory is getting some publicity.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Notes from China
In short, it was not as amazing as I thought. Unexpectedly, it was the people there that had given me the strongest impressions. I thought my family and relatives would have left me a bigger influence. Below are some notes extracted from my travel journal:
Omg. I'm at Beijing Airport. It's like a fashion show at the airport terminal! The girls are skinny, well dressed, and for the most part attractive. And they all look somewhat alike!
The architecture at airport is chaotic at best.
Omg. Sticker shock. And yet people are willing to pay for it!! Such propensity to consume is unbelievable.
Omg Chinese drivers. I have not seen a single turn signal since I arrived here. Road rage, I later learned, is very common. I went back to the place where I spent much of my childhood and my early teenage years. It saddened me as I didn't feel a gush of new memories. I wanted to feel something, but sadly I didn't feel much.
What was on my mind during the first few days I arrived? I felt a sense of loneliness and foreignness that I had not expected. I was timid and my eyes opened wide trying to absorb everything I see. I wondered where are my friends and where is she, that special one.
It was hard to get a conversation going with someone you don't know. As if neither of us really deserves it.
During the hour long train ride to Harbin from Daqing, I've come to the admission that changes that I was observing aren't what I've expected. Changes, from urban landscape to how people behave and think, to the emerging culture, seem to have gone to a threshold that is hard for me to accept. Perhaps it is not as congruent, pleasing, or delightful as I thought. I realized I did have an expectation before the trip, however unrealistic or idealistic it was.
During my stay with the family, I realize how loving they are and they inspire me to be more loving. At the same time, I wanted to be left alone and I wanted to cultivate my own experience.
At Zhengzhou airport ready to depart for Shanghai, there is a moment of joy and relief. I finally have the opportunity to experience myself and to go on an adventure.
At the time, I was convinced that if I stay in China for one more month, it will drive me insane. Now after I came back, I tend to accept it more.
Shanghai reminds me of the book "Ugly Americans", in which the western banks had "robbed" Japan for billions. Shanghai is still the wild wild west, a frontier territory for western establishments, despite the growth in recent years.
Across China, there were basically three topics of concerns. Invest in real estate; Stocks investing/trading; Buying a car. You'd be surprised if anything else existed!
People feel very wealthy in China. They are confident and complacent at the same time. The slightly above-average crowd demand nothing but the best. The society is extremely unfair and ruthless. But people are accustomed to it. People have put way too much emphasis on wealth and social status. It is sad to see people who should be benefited by the economic transformation had not been properly rewarded, while the wealth had really gone to the hands of the select few.
I watching a dating show on TV. For some reason, all the shows about relationships seem to revolve around the similar theme.
You are desirable only if:
you're beautiful from outside; You make good money; You own a house/car, or can afford a house/car; Your residence is in a big city like Shanghai.
It is absolutely sickening to watch people expressing their opinions with such bias, such impatience, and such selfishness. Yet this is mainstream. My god, where is the truth about love.
China is such a vulnerable nation. I don't mean natural disasters or economic or political instability but emotional vulnerability.
Omg. I'm at Beijing Airport. It's like a fashion show at the airport terminal! The girls are skinny, well dressed, and for the most part attractive. And they all look somewhat alike!
The architecture at airport is chaotic at best.
Omg. Sticker shock. And yet people are willing to pay for it!! Such propensity to consume is unbelievable.
Omg Chinese drivers. I have not seen a single turn signal since I arrived here. Road rage, I later learned, is very common. I went back to the place where I spent much of my childhood and my early teenage years. It saddened me as I didn't feel a gush of new memories. I wanted to feel something, but sadly I didn't feel much.
What was on my mind during the first few days I arrived? I felt a sense of loneliness and foreignness that I had not expected. I was timid and my eyes opened wide trying to absorb everything I see. I wondered where are my friends and where is she, that special one.
It was hard to get a conversation going with someone you don't know. As if neither of us really deserves it.
During the hour long train ride to Harbin from Daqing, I've come to the admission that changes that I was observing aren't what I've expected. Changes, from urban landscape to how people behave and think, to the emerging culture, seem to have gone to a threshold that is hard for me to accept. Perhaps it is not as congruent, pleasing, or delightful as I thought. I realized I did have an expectation before the trip, however unrealistic or idealistic it was.
During my stay with the family, I realize how loving they are and they inspire me to be more loving. At the same time, I wanted to be left alone and I wanted to cultivate my own experience.
At Zhengzhou airport ready to depart for Shanghai, there is a moment of joy and relief. I finally have the opportunity to experience myself and to go on an adventure.
At the time, I was convinced that if I stay in China for one more month, it will drive me insane. Now after I came back, I tend to accept it more.
Shanghai reminds me of the book "Ugly Americans", in which the western banks had "robbed" Japan for billions. Shanghai is still the wild wild west, a frontier territory for western establishments, despite the growth in recent years.
Across China, there were basically three topics of concerns. Invest in real estate; Stocks investing/trading; Buying a car. You'd be surprised if anything else existed!
People feel very wealthy in China. They are confident and complacent at the same time. The slightly above-average crowd demand nothing but the best. The society is extremely unfair and ruthless. But people are accustomed to it. People have put way too much emphasis on wealth and social status. It is sad to see people who should be benefited by the economic transformation had not been properly rewarded, while the wealth had really gone to the hands of the select few.
I watching a dating show on TV. For some reason, all the shows about relationships seem to revolve around the similar theme.
You are desirable only if:
you're beautiful from outside; You make good money; You own a house/car, or can afford a house/car; Your residence is in a big city like Shanghai.
It is absolutely sickening to watch people expressing their opinions with such bias, such impatience, and such selfishness. Yet this is mainstream. My god, where is the truth about love.
China is such a vulnerable nation. I don't mean natural disasters or economic or political instability but emotional vulnerability.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
An adamant pursuit
I've become increasingly aware of my single-mindedness. It is my pursuit to become a successful trader. "Successful" encompasses more than merely monetary sense. It has to do with the process of getting there. Without me performing that process, it's like living life without a purpose. I could not enjoy all the thrills life has to offer. I've convinced myself that life would not be as fulfilling if I have not followed the process.
So what the hell am I waiting for.
My single-mindedness has eluded me so much that it begins to scare me. It has to give, I guess, from my other passions, to friendships, to people that I love.
So what the hell am I waiting for.
My single-mindedness has eluded me so much that it begins to scare me. It has to give, I guess, from my other passions, to friendships, to people that I love.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Emotions run high
It is difficult to comprehend my mixed emotions at the moment.
Steeped in sadness recently that I would be leaving Seattle soon. People that I've come to know and LOVE over the last few months would be yet another page in my history book. I must convince myself that this must be seen in a positive light - I'm so grateful for the people and the experience here. It had inspired me and reminded me what I've always wanted so dearly. Without this experience, I would not actually move!
My first-ever flight to China is in 6 days. It would be my first time back in more than 11 years. Perhaps I can trace a certain sense of guilt in my thoughts. I could not explain why has it been so long. They were my family and had loved me dearly. Yet that love I was unable to requite. It brought me to tears when my grandfather, through a quivering voice, reminded me he is currently 76 years old.
But my chief concern is the sense of isolation that I'm so afraid to experience - China and its culture had changed in last 11 years. But more importantly I have changed since I was a teenager. I wonder how I'd fit in. I do not know how I would perceive everything that will happen. I feel the experiences will undoubtedly fall outside of my range of expectations. So I should bear no expectations. Let experience take me away.
--
I opened a stock chart on my screen. It is so remarkably simple and pure. It is why I love it.
Steeped in sadness recently that I would be leaving Seattle soon. People that I've come to know and LOVE over the last few months would be yet another page in my history book. I must convince myself that this must be seen in a positive light - I'm so grateful for the people and the experience here. It had inspired me and reminded me what I've always wanted so dearly. Without this experience, I would not actually move!
My first-ever flight to China is in 6 days. It would be my first time back in more than 11 years. Perhaps I can trace a certain sense of guilt in my thoughts. I could not explain why has it been so long. They were my family and had loved me dearly. Yet that love I was unable to requite. It brought me to tears when my grandfather, through a quivering voice, reminded me he is currently 76 years old.
But my chief concern is the sense of isolation that I'm so afraid to experience - China and its culture had changed in last 11 years. But more importantly I have changed since I was a teenager. I wonder how I'd fit in. I do not know how I would perceive everything that will happen. I feel the experiences will undoubtedly fall outside of my range of expectations. So I should bear no expectations. Let experience take me away.
--
I opened a stock chart on my screen. It is so remarkably simple and pure. It is why I love it.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Keep the fighting spirits alive
Life really sucks when you're expected to have preferences while you actually have none. When you should have cared or said something, but you didn't, because you thought it's not all that important, or you're just reserving your words. The lack of preferences and caring makes you so numb that it's beginning to shield you away from such joyous experiences in life.
It is perhaps a disadvantage for me (every disadvantage comes with an advantage, if you choose to believe). I'll just have to find my niche. And I must be willing to admit it and fully embrace it.
----
I was reminded today by a friend that I'm still young and I must not settle. His enthusiasm and optimism really inspired me. I know I should accrue more risk and let the chance work in my favor.
Indeed, just like in sports, games, and businesses, you apply the more risky strategy first, and then the conservative strategy (if you are ahead). If you're behind, you will not be behind by much.
I was reminded to be a five year old.
It is perhaps a disadvantage for me (every disadvantage comes with an advantage, if you choose to believe). I'll just have to find my niche. And I must be willing to admit it and fully embrace it.
----
I was reminded today by a friend that I'm still young and I must not settle. His enthusiasm and optimism really inspired me. I know I should accrue more risk and let the chance work in my favor.
Indeed, just like in sports, games, and businesses, you apply the more risky strategy first, and then the conservative strategy (if you are ahead). If you're behind, you will not be behind by much.
I was reminded to be a five year old.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
reason for the sell-off
We have a broad market sell-off today, resulting in a trending day. This should be totally expected and should not come as a surprise. Both currency and equities markets edged below some important technical levels. It could be argued the strength of the dollar lead the decline. Though I would not rely on that as a trade thesis. It's merely an after-the-fact confirmation/observation.
The pundits are too eager to tag a reason to the sell-off: "China", "Greece", "sovereign risk", "credit tightening", "jobs", etc. While it is interesting to speculate, the fact is, there is no right answer and it doesn't really matter. Some people out there sold, and the rest followed, or were forced to sell.
Tomorrow is a Friday. Thursday's broad sell-off is not good new for the bulls heading into the weekend. There's reason to expect another trending day. You just need to be positioned to take advantage of it as it happens. As Richard Dennis puts it,
The pundits are too eager to tag a reason to the sell-off: "China", "Greece", "sovereign risk", "credit tightening", "jobs", etc. While it is interesting to speculate, the fact is, there is no right answer and it doesn't really matter. Some people out there sold, and the rest followed, or were forced to sell.
Tomorrow is a Friday. Thursday's broad sell-off is not good new for the bulls heading into the weekend. There's reason to expect another trending day. You just need to be positioned to take advantage of it as it happens. As Richard Dennis puts it,
"Success in the market is not about ability to forecast, one just has be ready when it happens".
AUD/USD broke important support level right about 1 hour before 6:30AM PST
S&P futures followed the trend of AUD/USD, started trending before 6:30AM open
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
rationality, game theory, etc.
I actually liked a recent story on NBC News: Congress had voted to spend $2.5Billion to continue building Boeing C-17's despite the President and the Pentagon had urged to stop building them because there's already a huge excess.
Why waste $2.5B on C-17's that nobody needs? Congress voted in the name to save jobs! See, C-17 parts come from 44 states. Non of the politicians in Washington wants to be blamed for jobs lost in their states! In addition to the 43 planes built since '06, That's 53 C-17's (excess of $12Billion in aggregate) to save... 20,000 jobs! Nice played, Congress!
This is sort of like Prisoner's Dilemma, in which every politician acts on his own interest but collectively have achieved a worse outcome. It might be wise to use that $12B to create new jobs!
This is sort of like Prisoner's Dilemma, in which every politician acts on his own interest but collectively have achieved a worse outcome. It might be wise to use that $12B to create new jobs!
--
On another note, while reading a book on game theory, I was inspired to develop a game theory model for approaching relationships. I wasn't getting anywhere far - human emotions are kinda difficult for a beginner (modeler, game theorist) like me to model. I wonder if there are any work on this... While I was searching on the net, I wonder how useful such a model actually is. Any empirical data on this?!
A voice of Fischer Black rings in my ear:
In the end, a theory is accepted not because it is confirmed by conventional empirical tests, but because researchers persuade one another that the theory is correct and relevant.
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