trending days

The day's not over yet. I'm done for the day fairly early today as I do not want to get into emotional trading. Best thing is to stay away.

We now have two huge trending days in a row! My guess is that we're not going to see much of a bounce today, if at all.

Last Friday's market action (previous blog) was an early warning. We got congestion in that 113-115 range. Market fails to make new highs with great volume - often signs of market top. The breakout of that range makes a great directional trade and should be indicative of what's to come in the following weeks, if not months.


Yesterday was a good day. Shorted before the Obama news. The market was going to drop despite the news. The difference is that it makes a good "news" - newsheads now have something to talk about - the REASON market fell.

I was actually not aware of the news. Suddenly I see financials took a dive, especially GS, which had earnings that morning. Terrible for me, because I actually finished shorting, having just covered COH, FCX, BUCY, and now reversed to going long on EBAY and UNP. Admittedly, it was a quick scalp trade. Not waiting for exit signs/signals, I'm out of those trades before I knew it. Financials is supposed to lead, not lag. GS I was already having an outsider reversal at that time. I was out with minimal losses. Without the Obama press conference, EBAY and UNP could have worked out. It's perfectly fine that they are losers. It's part of the game. Unpredictability must be factored into the trading process.

This morning's open was below yesterday's low. Just on that, I thought today was going to be another trending day. I thought I was wrong at 8am when market made a new high for the day.

My shorts didn't go well. I waited a bit too long to cover on MON, resulting larger losses than usual.

Turned out today IS a trending day, a big one. Volatility spiked 23% (as of now)... and I missed many signals during the day. My conservative SPY June put is up 23% as well.


Why did I ...

Hindsight kills.