Thursday, February 4, 2010

reason for the sell-off

We have a broad market sell-off today, resulting in a trending day. This should be totally expected and should not come as a surprise. Both currency and equities markets edged below some important technical levels. It could be argued the strength of the dollar lead the decline. Though I would not rely on that as a trade thesis. It's merely an after-the-fact confirmation/observation.


The pundits are too eager to tag a reason to the sell-off: "China", "Greece", "sovereign risk", "credit tightening", "jobs", etc. While it is interesting to speculate, the fact is, there is no right answer and it doesn't really matter. Some people out there sold, and the rest followed, or were forced to sell. 

Tomorrow is a Friday. Thursday's broad sell-off is not good new for the bulls heading into the weekend. There's reason to expect another trending day. You just need to be positioned to take advantage of it as it happens. As Richard Dennis puts it,

"Success in the market is not about ability to forecast, one just has be ready when it happens".

AUD/USD broke important support level right about 1 hour before 6:30AM PST


 
S&P futures followed the trend of AUD/USD, started trending before 6:30AM open

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